Dayton looks to be prime swing area in race for White House

Both presidential campaigns are barnstorming the Dayton area today and it appears to be a swing area in this swing state according to recent voting history, which shows general Republican strength but new Democratic trends in the region's core counties.

The Dayton-Springfield metro area is the fourth largest in Ohio, behind Columbus and is the population center of what can be defined as “west Ohio,” according to the "Ohio Politics Almanac." This region is identified as five central counties running along the Indiana border up to Union and Madison counties. These 15 counties delivered 13 percent of the presidential vote in 2004, 58 percent of which went for George W. Bush.

As such, each side has a different interest in the area. Broadly, Republicans see western Ohio as a source of strength because it is generally rural and conservative. It is no surprise then that McCain held his vice-presidential kick-off rally in Dayton for 10,000 people in Dayton on Aug. 29.
 
The area is hardly solid Republican turf. A recent Quinnipiac poll of “west central” Ohio showed John McCain with 54 percent support and Barack Obama with 32 percent, but 13 percent said they were undecided.

The results were practically identical in a Columbus Dispatch poll last month.
 
However, a sizable quotient of undecideds, impending job losses at the nearby Wilmington air facility, and an apparent Democratic trend in Montgomery and Clark counties makes the area look pliable for Obama.

While western Ohio looks to give McCain a majority of votes by looking at recent polls, Montgomery and Clark counties are not certain for him.

Montgomery gave 51 percent of its vote to Kerry and Clark gave Bush 51 percent of its vote. The last Republican to win either of the counties before George W. Bush took Clark in 2004 was George H.W. Bush in 1988, who won both. 

Gov. Ted Strickland’s 2006 performance in the area may reveal a higher ceiling for Obama than the thin majorities previous Democratic presidential candidates have received in Montgomery and Clark.

Strickland won 57 percent in Montgomery and 60 percent in Clark. No one knows that final result more than Mike DeWine, who lost his home county by 6 percent during his failed 2006 re-election bid for U.S. Senate.