Kasich laying groundwork for gubernatorial bid

John KasichRepublican John Kasich is laying the groundwork for a 2010 run for governor, people close to the former U.S. congressman tell PolitickerOH.com, but he won't publicly announce his candidacy until after the 2008 elections.

About once a month Kasich meets with a group of long-time friends who are advising him on a gubernatorial run, according to two sources familiar with Kasich and his advisors who asked not to be identified. The group includes former Kasich chief of staff Don Thibaut, Franklin County Republican Party chair Doug Preisse and fundraiser Tod Bowen who has previously collected money for Kasich's New Century Project PAC. While famed Republican money man and Summit County GOP chair Alex Arshinkoff isn't part of Kasich's close circle, he has "reach everywhere" and is "on Kasich's side," according to one source.

PolitickerOH.com asked Preisse and Bowen about their conversations with Kasich, and both said they and Kasich have talked but neither would confirm a Kasich run.

Bowen said Kasich was only feeling out the idea and downplayed talk of any formal planning.

"It's accurate that he's thinking about it, but it's not the proper characterization that he's laying the groundwork," Bowen said. "It's too early. It's something he's definitely interested in, but we're not beyond that at this point."

Preisse said he's spoken with Kasich about the subject a few times but said Kasich hasn't decided to run.

These denials conflict with what one source reports Kasich and his advisors both told him in the fall of 2007: that he will run for governor barring some unforeseen event. The other person, who personally knows Kasich, confirmed he is doing more than thinking about running, but is quietly preparing to run though he won't make a final decision until next year.
Kasich needs to see the results of this year's election and details of Gov. Ted Strickland's 2009 legislative agenda, especially education reform, that person said.

Not only must Kasich know what the post-2008 political landscape will look like, he must also not distract Republican Party leaders from the election at-hand, said Republican strategist Terry Casey.

"It would be counterproductive," Casey said via e-mail. "County party leaders and candidates are focused on 2008 and do not want any distractions or competition from those immediate needs."

Republican voters aren't thinking about the 2010 election yet, according to Bob Clegg, senior vice president of Midwest Communications and Media.

"For just regular people out there 2010 is pretty far away," Clegg said. "So you're not getting a lot of buzz [about Kasich] from just the regular people out there. But party people are talking because he has been out there a lot in the past year or so."

It's been nearly a decade since Kasich was active in state politics. Kasich began representing the 12th Congressional District in 1983. During his time in office Kasich worked on welfare reform and chaired the House Budget Committee where he helped produce 1997's balanced budget. Kasich briefly explored running for president in 1999 but withdrew, and retired from office in 2001.

If Kasich is running for governor he has to reach out to those who've joined the GOP and risen in its ranks since he left office seven years ago. However, Kasich's absence from may be a benefit of sorts.

"He would be a blast of fresh air not just for the Republican Party but also for the state of Ohio," Preisse said, adding that Kasich got out of politics before the party ran into a variety of troubles, most among them taking money from Tom Noe, who was convicted of stealing millions from the Bureau of Workers' Compensation in the "Coingate" scandal.

Political analysts disagree about how much Kasich would have to reintroduce himself to Republicans before the primary. Clegg said Kasich enjoys fair name recognition because he was chair of the House Budget Committee and host of a Fox News show.

Republican strategist Mark Weaver disagrees.

"Eight years is a long time," Weaver said. "Many people have moved into the district that don't know him so he doesn't have much of a base. Avid news junkies might have seen him on television, but name ID statewide is very low."

Kasich has kept active in Republican circles, speaking at more than a dozen Lincoln Day dinners in 2008. The dinners are among the largest fundraising events that county Republican parties hold each year by drawing hundreds of Republicans to listen to a keynote speaker like Kasich. As a result, he has simultaneously raised money for parties, reached out to those parties' leaders and spoke to thousands of their members. In effect, this much-derided "rubber-chicken circuit" has been a virtual primary campaign.

However, Weaver said this stumping is not important to voters.

"They want a candidate who has experience, ideas and a campaign organization that can win. Early Lincoln Day speeches are really just a beauty pageant, ‘look at me, here I am.' It doesn't hurt, but it doesn't help much," Weaver said. "I've done 10 races for governor and the one thing I've noticed is that voters want someone with strong management experience. Kasich is known more as a legislator. He doesn't have any management experience per se. In some ways he's better suited to run for Senate because of his background in Congress."

Still, neither Weaver nor Clegg discounted Kasich's chances in the primary or general election.

"He's got a reputation from his work in Congress. He's been out on the stump giving speeches. He's not a fringe candidate by any stretch," Weaver said.

Clegg said Kasich would match-up well against Strickland.

"I think that John Kasich would create a good contrast with Ted Strickland because Kasich is younger, more energetic," he said.